Political Guts

Truth in Numbers

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Statistics or just lies?

The latest employment figures have just been released, but there is doubt about their accuracy.  Why?  Because the “sample size” of the survey has been reduced, probably affecting the accuracy of the sampling results.

OK, I have a question.  If each unemployed person is paid an unemployment benefit, can we not just count the number of those benefits paid, and report that number?  Would it not be the true number, rather than an ”estimate” of the number unemployed?

This is typical of many of the rubbery, “seasonally adjusted” numbers we have to put up with.  I speak from experience in the area of putting people to work, as I started and ran the Job Club in Southport for some time, with a 122% success rate, and over the years through the Job Club and my other seminars, have put hundreds of people into employment or their own businesses.

These are my numbers:

IF the unemployment number is 4%, then the UNDER-employment numbers are around 75%.  That counts people who hate their jobs and are working at under capacity, or can’t get enough work and are counted as “casual” or “part time” or some other statistic, but not really “Unemployed.  If the truth was known, there are probably about 10% of the population who would rush out now if they could find the job that suited them, but for either logistical or other social reasons, cannot leave where they are to risk the new opportunity.  There is probably a 5% figure that will never work and will find ways around every rule or hurdle Centrelink places on them, because they have learned how to work the system.

There are probably a quarter of the population who would leave employment and work in their own businesses if only they knew how and had the resources to support them.  And probably about 25% of the population so broke that they can barely maintain their status quo now, without risking an hour out for a job interview.

However, that’s just my experience from the coalface, we will probably never know the truth because the surveys of 24,000 people will never ask the questions that will get to the truth, and the numbers of benefit recipients in their various categories will never be released as a publicly available figure.

The same applies to so many “seasonally adjusted” figures, in areas of the economy, population movements, car sales, inflation and almost every statistic.  Every time I hear “seasonally adjusted”, I know that someone somewhere is fudging figures to suit.

The trouble with it is that hiding the truth prevents us formulating an appropriate response to the problem, because we don’t have an accurate starting point!  It’s like going to the doctor and playing charades – what sort of a diagnosis would you expect?  And if the doctor mis-diagnosed your condition, would they be professionally negligent, or would they have the right to say “SERVE YOU RIGHT!”?

What can we do?

INSIST on the truth and nothing less, about all the statistics that come out, to give us an accurate starting point on ALL the problems we face, so the best solutions can be found.

Look for why the truth is not being told, and expose the real problems behind the lies.  Head to the newspapers and TV current affairs shows and U-Tube and any other publicity you can get, to embarrass them into telling the truth about the numbers.

There are statistics and there are lies, but this is our country, don’t you Pollies dare mess with it, govern it with integrity, or get out of the way!!

Putting the pressure on our politicians and leaders, to take the decisions that need to be taken right now, to solve the problems we have, that we already know how to solve!